By Tahseen Wsu Abdullah
In November 2024, the census was conducted in Iraq after 27 years, which means that no census has been conducted in Iraq since. According to the results of the process, which was announced last month, the population of Iraq reached (46) million (118) thousand (793) people.
This conclusion is important, but its importance not only for the country’s demographic analysis, rather also has major implications for the country’s politics and economy. After the announcement of the census results, the next steps are to transfer or translate this data into practice, so that the government, political representation, and economic policy in Iraq on this basis Population must be based on the results of the last census (2024).
One of the direct consequences of this census is the need to change the representation in the Iraqi parliament, which according to the Iraqi constitution must be proportional to the population, as stated in first paragraph of Article 49; ” The Council of Representatives shall consist of a few members, at a ratio of one seat per 100,000 Iraqi persons representing the entire Iraqi people. They shall be elected through a direct secret general ballot. The representation of all components of the people shall be upheld in it.”
Therefore, in the next session of parliament, the number of seats in parliament will increase significantly based on this census, according to the population, the seats of the Iraqi parliament will increase to more than (450) seats. This is the biggest political impact of the process on policy and issue management at the highest level among the communities. This will undoubtedly lead to fierce conflict, because this increase is based on population growth, and the electoral system is based on multi-circuit, then there will be an imbalance between the provinces, because the population growth rate is not the same in all provinces.
There is no doubt that the decision to increase the number of MPs will not be without controversy, so the SEC has refrained from maintaining its current number of deputies, because any such decision before the Federal Court, will face legal challenges. These legal barriers are important because they highlight the shaky balance of power and the need for careful adherence to constitutional texts, but the main concern is how these changes will affect the political landscape, including potential shifts in political coalitions, electoral strategies, and regional representation. Because with the change in the seat of the House of Representatives, the strength and position of the structures, parties and coalitions will also change.
So, last year’s census could usher in a new era for Iraq’s political future, since the completion of the population census in Iraq is a turning point for the country’s future, as the population will be the basis on which political decisions are based. Increasing the number of seats in parliament by such a large amount will have various consequences, especially for provinces and regions with an imbalance in population growth. Therefore, the post-census phase is considered a major challenge for the Iraqi government.