By Peyraw Anwar
General Scene
On December 8, 2024, Bashar al-Assad’s regime falls after 13 years since the Arab Spring began, following the killing of over half a million citizens, the displacement of millions, and the destruction of a large part of the country, with Bashar al-Assad fleeing to his Russian allies. The Assad family ruled the country for 53 years, without good governance, without establishing national institutions, and without advancing the concept of citizenship and citizens’ rights. The world might find it strange that in the era of artificial intelligence, hundreds of thousands of Kurds in Rojava and other parts of Syria still lack citizenship and rights, simply because they are Kurdish, speak Kurdish, and belong to the Kurdish ethnic group. The prisons after Bashar al-Assad reveal hundreds of tragic stories, demonstrating how anyone with even a small political or social critique of the Assad regime or political elite has had their entire life and right to live taken away. This is the smallest scene of Bashar al-Assad’s regime that the world continues to witness daily on television screens!
Transitional Phase
Syria is currently in a transitional phase, which in its simplest meaning means transferring power, society, and institutions from a dictatorial system to a democratic system where the people are the source of power, sovereignty, and decisions. International law and the international community have established rules, procedures, and guidelines for this situation to democratize political power and society smoothly without obstacles. However, transferring power and society without a strong democratic culture is not easy to achieve its goal and transform society into a civil and democratic one in a short time. Often in third-world countries, the transition phase takes a long time due to various internal and external factors, and political power is not easily controlled by law and constitution. Ideologies, regional powers’ interests, major powers, and non-constitutional forces dominate and obstruct the process. The case of Iraq after 2003 might be the best example of this situation. The dominant indication in current Syria is building a strong central state without the participation of other actors and minorities, with Kurds as a non-state actor at the forefront. This model for managing Syria will once again confront New Syria with conflicts.
New Social Contract
Rebuilding any post-war country must be through reformulating a new social contract. Even building peace is the first step of a new social contract that emerges in the form of a constitution to reconnect all components, protect rights and freedoms, and democratically share power among all actors. Although the current situation in Syria offers little hope for thinking about a civil and democratic constitution based on political and cultural pluralism and respect for individual rights and freedoms, this is due to several factors:
First: New Syria has four new local actors with political and geopolitical geographies, each with an external center supporting them to some degree. The Syrian Democratic Forces, Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham with authority, the Free Syrian Army, and the Syrian Opposition make state-building even more difficult.
Second: Major powers, the United States, the European Union, and regional countries are still not aligned on a roadmap and strategy for managing future Syria. What exists is a struggle to protect interests, identities, security, and influences in post-Assad Syria.