By Zak Amin
The 2024 US presidential election returned Donald Trump to office, and his presence raises some very serious questions for the Kurdish community, especially in Iraq. The KRG has constantly needed US support for its security and autonomy in general and, more specifically, against ISIS in the greater Middle Eastern geopolitics. With Trump back, new opportunities and risks are opening up for the Kurdish people vis-à-vis their US relations.
During his first term, US-Kurdish relations were very much between cooperation and controversy. His order in 2019 to withdraw US forces from northern Syria became a serious point of conflict because it left Kurdish forces open to Turkish attack. At the same time, during his term, the Trump administration continued providing military aid to the Kurdish forces in both Iraq and Syria for their role in the struggle against ISIS. This pragmatic approach-supported the Kurds against regional threats while limiting direct U.S. involvement in Iraqi internal politics-is likely to proceed without a halt into Trump’s second term.
A prime concern for the KRG will be security. Trump’s “America First” policy aims to reduce the number of US military commitments abroad; US troops in Iraq could be reduced. This would be a concern for the KRG, which needs U.S. support to ensure security and economic development. However, there is one thing that can provide a platform for further effective cooperation: the common interest of the KRG and the U.S. in keeping balance in Iraq
The relationship between the KRG and the Central Government of Iraq remains complex, with the 2017 Kurdish referendum for independence being unwanted by Baghdad but opposed by the U.S. as well; Trump’s administration certainly recognized the value of the Kurdish forces in defeating ISIS. This policy of non-interference is likely to continue in a second Trump term, with the KRG continuing to demand greater autonomy while Iraq seeks territorial unity.
Another issue facing Trump is the keeping balance between Kurdish forces in Kurdistan Western and Turkey . While seeking good relations with Turkey, Trump has shown his frustration because of the actions of Turkey against the Kurdish forces. This balancing game will remain a continued factor in setting U.S. policy, while the KRG’s security is directly related to U.S. relations with Turkey.
Nonetheless, against the inordinate challenges, the KRG remains optimistic regarding its relations with the U.S. Treefa Aziz, the representative for the KRG to the U.S., elaborated further on the need for more cooperation in security and developing the economy further. The KRG perceives the U.S. as a primary partner in promoting regional stability and balancing Iranian and Turkish influence.
However, even as the KRG would be relying on U.S. support in the war against ISIS and militias in Iraq , it would still have to strive for a judicious balancing act between the U.S. and the Iraqi government. Reduced U.S. military presence dictates that the KRG will henceforth rely on diplomacy, regional alliances, and unity from within in order to safeguard its autonomy and security within an increasingly complex geopolitical environment.