By Payraw Anwar
Political dynamics in the Middle East are quickly shifting from Yemen to Syria. The primary dynamic is Syria’s regime shift. The removal of Assad from power has resulted in the appointment of someone with no experience in running a civil or secular state. This fuels the situation further complicated and causes instability in the region.
One of the primary facets of the current Syrian governance structure illustrates Turkey’s dominance over the Syrian political elite and society. The shift of this power reflects the power and hegemony from the Iran’s paradigm (Shiite Crescent) to Turkish power and hegemony (New Ottomans). Syria struggles between two forces and regional projects or paradigms! Previously, a Shiite minority was running-directing the identity of the state and society, but this time a Sunni majority is reshaping society, politics and governance.
Shifting elements of power in the Middle East could lead reshape the geopolitics, balance of power, political roles, identity and governance structure of key players like Turkey and the Islamic Republic of Iran. Previously, the primary scenario was division of Syria into some small units based on ethno-sectarian identity. Today a new scenario has come up, the scenario of recentralizing Syria based on unique sovereignty, unitary state and powerful state, this paradigm plays a leading role in rebuilding relations between state and society. On the other hand, post-Assad Syria has led two new key elements for Kurds in Syria:
1-Inernational community, especially EU and the UASA urge Kurds in Syria to merge with Syria army as well as put down their weapons with no preconditions.
2- New Syria state must be drawn based on strong and centralized state. It means no federalism, autonomy and any kind of fragmentation is accepted.
Yemen is also another place where was targeted by the USA, UK and Israel. Israel strongly tries to discard ties among the Iran’s proxy in the region. Israel’s doctrine is Divide and Rule model to fully weaken Shiite crescent hegemony from Yemen to Syria. Currently, what we are experiencing in the regional political system is the decay of Iran’s political legacy and power from outside to inside its borders.
The emergence of violent non-state actors in the Middle East in recent years is linked with the growing weakness of many states in the region. States with low levels of legitimacy, good governance and response are unable to maintain the loyalty of many within their populations and citizens.
Syria case is the predominant field in supporting our above argument and justification. 5 different key players (state and non-state actors) are now presence in the country. They each have their own dominance space, foreign support, geopolitics, armed forces, political discourse even they have separately established their diplomatic relations with both regional and international states. Furthermore, this multi-polar dynamics have significantly faced Syrian society some difficulties in producing one national identity, national memory or entering into any modern social contract.