Kurdishglobe

Dancing Around Federalism: Kurdistan’s Uncertain Future in Iraq”

By Farhad Mohamad

Since 1992 to 2003, the Kurdistan Region broke away from Baghdad’s grip and functioned as a de facto state, effectively cutting off all ties with the central government of Iraq. During this period, it ran its own affairs, maintained internal stability, and even used a separate currency—a clear signal of its autonomy. However, in the lead-up to Saddam Hussein’s fall, Iraqi opposition groups—including Kurdish, Shiite, and Sunni factions—came together in landmark conferences held in London, Paris, and Erbil, where they hammered out a shared vision for rebuilding the country. These gatherings paved the way for a new political order. The 2005 Iraqi Constitution, born out of these efforts, laid down the foundations for a federal state—a bold attempt to move away from centralized rule and set up a system rooted in power-sharing, democratic governance, and respect for regional autonomy.
Since 2005, more than twenty years have elapsed, yet the Shiite-led authorities in Baghdad have persistently thrown up major roadblocks to implementing the Iraqi Constitution and the foundational laws essential for building a genuine federal system. Their blatant disregard for constitutional obligations has entangled the political process in a web of uncertainty, making it nearly impossible to establish the principles of “consensus, balance, and partnership” among Iraq’s key components. This neglect has also severely undermined prospects for peaceful coexistence among the diverse communities and jeopardized the territorial integrity of the country.

Also from the February 2014, the federal government has unilaterally and unjustifiably slashed the Kurdistan Region’s share of the national budget, in brazen defiance of the constitutional rights guaranteed to the Region. This deliberate economic strangulation has not only violated the law but also stood in open opposition to the Kurdistan Regional Government’s legitimate efforts to rebuild and modernize its infrastructure. The move reflects a systematic policy of marginalization and a calculated effort to weaken federalism in practice.
Recently The Iraqi government has vehemently opposed the two energy agreements signed by the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) delegation—led by PM Masrour Barzani With Chris Wright, the U.S. Secretary of Energy, in attendance—with two American companies aimed at investing in the Region’s energy sector. These contracts were designed to uphold the Kurdistan Region’s constitutional rights and to foster international cooperation in a vital economic field. Yet Baghdad has chosen to trample on both domestic law and global partnerships.
Demonstrating once again of disregard for humanitarian, national, and international norms, the Iraqi government has arbitrarily and punitively withheld the salaries of public employees in the Kurdistan Region—turning a constitutional dispute into an economic siege. Such actions have pushed Kurdish citizens to pose a fundamental question to Baghdad and the international community: Is the Kurdistan Region truly a partner in a federal Iraq, or merely a victim caught in the crosshairs of a hostile and lawless central authority? The silence and inaction only deepen the perception that Kurdistan is being treated not as a stakeholder in a nation, but as prey in the wilderness of Iraqi politics.
The federal system in Iraq, overseen by the United States, cannot be reduced to mere paperwork or hollow promises. Yet, in reality, this federal framework has all but collapsed on the ground, leaving the citizens of the Kurdistan Region gripped by deep uncertainty about their future within Iraq.
In May, U.S. Secretary of State and National Security Advisor Mike Robio posed a critical question to Congress: How vital is it to safeguard the Kurdistan Region? The answer to this question demands more than rhetoric—it requires concrete legal protections to be enacted by the U.S. Congress. Without such safeguards, the Shiite-led authorities will persistently dancing around the federal system, driving Iraq toward fragmentation. Ultimately, this would mean the loss of a reliable partner— which kurdistan it is a true friend and ally—for the United States in the region.

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