By John Adam
With the US election finished and over, the reverberations of this campaign will not stop at very many miles from Washington but all the way to the Kurdistan Region of Iraq. The Kurdish people have relied on the United States to be one of their closest partners for many decades now. The new political reality requires a prudent approach under such different political currents. Whatever the color of the ruling party inside the White House-whether Democrat or Republican-the Kurds should nurture relations and steadfastly continue their pursuit of political stability and economic prosperity.
Building diplomatic ties
Of course, the very first thing the KRG will do is to reach out as soon as possible to the new administration in the United States. If a Democratic presidency were to come to power in Washington, then Kurdish leaders are most likely to focus on issues of human rights, economic growth, and humanitarian assistance. On the other hand, if there is a Republican presidency, then military-security cooperation and of course counterterrorism will be the main topic of discussion. Whatever the case may be, the Kurds have to secure their security and development interests by keeping as close as possible to the American government.
Adapting to policy shifts
The Kurds are not strangers to adapting themselves to changes in U.S. policy. For example, if Democrats come into power, the U.S. might decrease its military presence and shift the burden onto the KRG for diversification of allies, especially with European countries and Gulf states. In the case of a Republican administration, there will most likely be continued military aid, which would surely help the Peshmerga forces. However, this decreased attention towards humanitarian and economic aid might mean the KRG will have to forge ties with new economic partners in terms of sustainable development.
Managing the regional challenges
This regional dynamic will continue to shift, especially with Iran and Turkey. A Democratic administration might seek to de-escalate tensions with Iran at the expense of changing the balance of power. The Kurds, always playing the balancing act between Washington and Tehran, would have to tread more carefully.
If the Republicans continue to stay in power, then the KRG will see an increase in tensions between the U.S. and Iran. It is in this scenario that the Kurds must be very cautious so as not to turn their region into a battleground. Meanwhile, the role of Turkey is enormously significant. Whoever the administration might be in the U.S., the Kurds will have to tread very carefully with Ankara due to its strategic position being an ally in NATO.
Economic development
Economically, the Kurds must continue to diversify. Although oil remains a key sector of the Kurdish economy, it cannot be sustained in the long run. A Democratic administration may offer more humanitarian aid and development assistance, which could have an added impact on education, agriculture, and tourism. A Republican-led administration will likely have a more energy-oriented approach that might favor Kurdistan’s oil and gas. However, as stated above, it is important for the KRG to pursue further development of a more diversified and resilient economy.
A time for realism and hope
In a world of frequent changes in U.S. leadership, the Kurds have become adept at adapting to these shifts. Be it Democrats in power or Republicans, they full well know their objectives remain one and the same: protect autonomy, ensure regional security, and nurture resilience via economics. It is how well they adapt to whatever geopolitical changes come their way that will make them successful in a constantly changing world.
Ultimately, it is the long history of pragmatism and perseverance that allows the Kurdish people to get by. To them, hope is not an emotion but a strategy that has guided them across generations.