Saadula Aqrawi
Of course the possibility of a military confrontation between the United States and Iran poses a significant risk to the economic stability of the Middle East, particularly Iraq. Situated between these two countries, Iraq occupies a strategically important position in a region where political tensions, security concerns, and energy markets are closely interconnected. Any escalation into a direct military conflict could have serious consequences for Iraq’s economy, national security, trade, investment, and long-term development. Although Iraq is one of the world’s major oil-producing countries, its heavy dependence on oil revenues has left its economy vulnerable to external shocks. Oil exports provide the government with most of its financial resources, making public salaries, infrastructure projects, social services, and economic development highly sensitive to fluctuations in global oil prices and production.
I believe that a potential US–Iran war would therefore expose the structural weaknesses of Iraq’s economic system. It would also highlight an urgent national priority: Iraq must diversify its economy and reduce its excessive reliance on oil if it hopes to achieve lasting economic stability and prosperity. Iraq occupies a sensitive geopolitical position because of its geographical proximity to Iran, its strategic relationship with the United States, and its economic dependence on regional stability. A military confrontation between Washington and Tehran could place Iraq under considerable political and security pressure. Depending on the scale and location of hostilities, Iraqi territory, airspace, infrastructure, and trade routes could face increased risks. Tensions could also intensify within Iraq’s political environment, making it more difficult for the government to maintain a balanced foreign policy.
Even if Iraq avoided direct military involvement, the economic consequences of a regional war could still be substantial. Modern economies are interconnected, and instability in one strategically important country can affect energy prices, transportation, insurance costs, investment decisions, and international trade across the region. For Iraq, the central challenge would be to protect its national interests while preventing geopolitical tensions from undermining its economic development. The potential consequences of a regional war reveal a broader structural problem: Iraq’s economy remains excessively dependent on a single source of revenue.
Yes, I believe that a country with substantial natural resources can achieve sustainable prosperity when it invests those resources in human capital, productive industries, modern infrastructure, and economic institutions. For Iraq, diversification should become a long-term national priority built around several key sectors. A potential war between the United States and Iran could have far-reaching consequences for Iraq’s economy, particularly through disruptions to oil exports, volatility in international energy markets, rising import costs, declining investor confidence, and pressure on government finances. And yes, the government should invest oil revenues in agriculture, industry, renewable energy, tourism, transportation, education, and technology while improving public financial management and creating a more competitive environment for private businesses. Ultimately, the measure of Iraq’s oil wealth should not be the number of barrels it exports, but the lasting prosperity it creates for its people. A successful economic strategy would transform oil from a source of dependence into an instrument of development, enabling Iraq to face future challenges with greater stability, independence, and confidence.