By Tahseen Wsu Abdullah
The Middle East entered a new phase following the events of October 7, 2023, marking a significant departure from the previous stage. This transformation was not only evident in the central parties involved in the war between Hamas and Israel but also in the involvement of many states and non-state actors in the region, which became part of an ongoing and complex conflict. These developments have further complicated the regional dynamics, surpassing the predictions and analyses that were previously made. Events and changes are occurring so rapidly and unexpectedly that they sometimes shock even the states that are integral to the process.
As a constitutionally and legally recognized region, as well as a de facto political and diplomatic entity, the Kurdistan Region is constantly affected by regional changes. In other words, any shifts at the regional level will have a direct or indirect impact on the Kurdistan Region. The region strives to navigate this situation in a way that avoids becoming entangled in regional conflicts. Nevertheless, the Kurdistan Region cannot be overlooked amidst the rapid and dramatic changes taking place. Although the Kurdistan Region has consistently aimed to be a factor of peace and security in the region, both the political leadership of the Kurdistan Region and the Kurdistan Regional Government have repeatedly emphasized this position, whether through official statements or participation in conferences. Kurdistan should be viewed as a stabilizing factor in terms of regional security.
From last year’s events in Gaza to the dramatic fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria, the Kurdistan Region has always sought to prevent any developments that could negatively impact it. While events in the region have divided states and non-state groups—with some directly or indirectly positioning themselves as the main front of the conflict—others have worked to avoid being part of the conflict due to the potential consequences of instability. The Kurdistan Region has acted within the framework of its needs, demands, and interests, recognizing that involvement in the conflict would yield negative outcomes.
In this context, if we examine the policies of some states or groups that had clearly aligned themselves with one side before the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria, their positions and behaviors have weakened since Assad’s fall. Many of these entities, which might have supported Assad’s fall in Israel, have largely chosen to remain silent afterward. This is the best evidence of the shifting dynamics.
The post-Assad era represents a new reality in the region, necessitating an appropriate policy response. The regional equations have been reshaped in a completely different manner compared to the pre-Assad period. It is essential to base actions on a solid foundation to effectively navigate and contribute to the changes in the next phase.