By Hewa A. Ahmed
The issue of the disputed areas between the Kurdistan Region and the central government of Iraq, such as Kirkuk, Khanaqin, Shingal, Makhmour and Sharazoor, are one of the most important political arenas that will play a significant role in the upcoming parliamentary elections due to the sensitivity of their situation. These areas are home to a large part of the Kurdish population, along with other components Ethnic and religious groups that are at the center of a fierce conflict between Kurdish, Arab,Turkmen and sectarian forces such as the Shia.
In terms of population, these districts have a large number of votes and can have a direct impact on the way seats are distributed. For example, the city of Kirkuk has only 12 parliamentary seats, which can make a difference, and play a role in strengthening or weakening the position of the Kurds in the Iraqi parliament. The fate of these areas is also known to affect the national demands of the Kurds, especially in relation to the the issue of resolving Article 140 of the Iraqi Constitution, which is still pending between the Kurdistan Region and the Iraqi government.
The Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) as the two main Kurdish forces and parties have intensified their efforts to gain more support from the Kurdish population in these disputed areas, and this sensitive issue may be one of the main reasons behind Bafel Talabani’s visits to Pirmam and their meeting with President Barzani and the KDP to unite the Kurds and make the Kurds appear strong in Baghdad, because as is known The Shiite forces of the Coordination Framework and some Sunni Arab parties are trying to rally the voices of the Arab and Turkmen people in order to reduce Kurdish influence in these areas.
If we look at Shingal, we see that the problem is more complicated, because in addition to the national forces, the (YPG) and (PKK) have a presence in this area, which makes the competition more subtle and complicated.
In addition to the above, it is clear that the results of the elections in these areas will have a direct impact on the ability of Kurdish parties to form a strong parliamentary bloc. The large number of votes in the Kirkuk and Diyala regions means more seats in the Iraqi parliament, demonstrating the strength of the Kurdish position in national decisions on the budget, oil, weapons and government structure issues in Baghdad. Just as the Kurdish presence in these areas, especially after the terrorist attacks of ISIS and the demographic changes that have taken place in the region, the success of the Kurds in these areas is a reinforcement of the Kurdistan Region’s demands in future negotiations with Baghdad.
What is worrying about this election cycle is that the disputed regions face a number of challenges such as demographic changes, security pressures, the threat of armed groups, and interference by external actors, especially Iran and Turkey. Despite the different interpretations of electoral laws and the problems of their implementation by the federal authorities, all of these can have a negative impact on the freedom, fairness and integrity of the election results.
As a result, we can say that the disputed areas are an important political arena in the upcoming Iraqi parliamentary elections, which will not only affect the number of seats, but also have a political message on the future of these areas and the Kurdistan Region’s position in the Federal Republic of Iraq. We need to protect the interests of the people of Kurdistan.