Restructuring Iraq’s distribution of resources and political power
Earlier this year, Iraq concluded its first comprehensive population census since 1987, marking a watershed moment for a nation that has long relied on estimates and fragmented data for governance and planning. Conducted in November 2024 and unveiled at a national conference in Baghdad on February 24, 2025, the census revealed a total population of 45.4 million with significant implications for resource allocation, political representation, and development planning across the country.
The Government of Iraq, in partnership with the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), presented findings that will serve as the foundation for the National Development Plan 2024-2028 and progress toward Sustainable Development Goals. The government characterized the census as a “historic achievement” that would ensure resources reach areas of greatest need and development strategies acknowledge every individual’s requirements.
Kurdistan Region’s Demographic Weight and Budget Implications
The census confirmed the Kurdistan Region’s population stands at 6.37 million people, comprising 14% of Iraq’s total population. This figure directly challenges the federal government’s previous allocation of just 12.6% of the national budget to Kurdistan for 2023-2025, setting the stage for renegotiation of both fiscal transfers and parliamentary representation.
Kurdistan Region Statistics Office’s census department, emphasized that this percentage will inform future budget negotiations. However, Kurdish officials note the actual figure should exceed 14% if disputed territories were included in the count. These contested areas—including parts of Kirkuk, Saladin governorate, and districts in Dohuk, Erbil, and Sulaymaniyah—were excluded from the Kurdistan Region’s tally despite having Kurdish populations.
The region recorded 1.38 million households with an average family size of 4.6 people and a population growth rate of 2.8%—higher than Iraq’s national average of 2.3%. Gender distribution showed near parity, with males comprising 50.24% and females 49.76%. Significantly, 84% of Kurdistan’s population lives in urban areas, reflecting rapid urbanization patterns across the region.
Youth Demographics and DevelopmentPotential
Perhaps most striking is Kurdistan’s demographic dividend: 63.7% of the region’s population falls within working age (15-64 years), exceeding both Iraq’s national rate of 60.2% and the 60% threshold statisticians consider optimal for economic growth potential. Statistics Office emphasized this youthful demographic could drive future development if properly leveraged through employment programs and economic planning.
However, the office expressed concern about declining family sizes, attributing this trend to economic pressures, social changes, and global influences affecting young couples’ decisions about having children—a pattern that could have long-term implications for the region’s demographic trajectory.
The census also revealed the impact of Iraq’s turbulent recent history: approximately 962,000 internally displaced persons and refugees currently reside in Kurdistan, including 680,000 Iraqi IDPs and 282,000 refugees, predominantly Syrians. Statistics Office noted that many Kurdistan residents returned to their original homes in disputed territories before the census, contributing to lower-than-expected population counts in the autonomous region.
UNFPA Representatives reinforced the transformative potential of the census, describing it as “more than just numbers” but rather “a tool for change,” with particular focus on ensuring the data translates into inclusive policies benefiting women, youth, and marginalized populations.
As Iraq processes these first comprehensive population figures in nearly four decades, the data promises to inform more accurate government planning while simultaneously highlighting political sensitivities surrounding disputed territories and resource allocation in the federal system.
By Jawad Qadir