By Tahseen Wsu Abdullah
The war between the United States and Israel against the Islamic Republic of Iran, which began on February 28, is not only a war between the two main sides, but also spread to the countries of the region. In other words, these states are completely affected by the war, even if they are not depicted as part of it.
Iraq as a regional state has become part of the complicated situation for two main reasons:
First, religious and hegemonic factors; Obviously, the Islamic Republic of Iran sees Iraq as its backyard to defend its political system, which has led Iran to become deeply involved in Iraqi society, especially after 2003, by following a strategy that relies on the creation of religious armed militias They have completely occupied not only political power but also economic and cultural power. These armed groups and militias are linked to strong supporters of Iranian interests, so that all their behavior, policies and strategies are aimed at protecting Iranian interests in Iraq and are constantly against the direction that wants Iraq to be for Iraqis.
Second, the border factor, geography and the presence of US forces in Iraq. Iraq has a wide border with the Islamic Republic of Iran. At the same time, the presence of US forces, both as a military base and as an economic interest, is seen as unacceptable from Iran’s point of view. Iran declared early in the war; All these locations in the region will be a major target of US forces and interests.
In addition to these two factors, there are other factors that have made Iraq seen as part of the war, but these two factors are considered the most important reasons.
Iraq will appear as the “main arena for conflict resolution” in this war, and with the disappearance or weakness and fall of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Iraq will face a major political and religious disintegration. Here are the most important crises facing Iraq:
First, the militias and the “command crisis, Iranian-backed militias (such as the Kataib, Nujaba, and others) that have been the backbone of Iranian hegemony in Iraq are facing deep problems, including:
– Split, without Tehran’s supervision, these groups face internal conflicts over financial resources and power.
– Small civil war: Some of these groups have carried out “political suicide” attacks, including attacks on the US embassy and the Ain al-Assad base, which will quickly draw Iraq into the war.
Second, the Baghdad government between Tehran and Washington; The Sudanese government (or any other government that comes to power later) is faced with a difficult situation between two options;
– US pressure: Washington is asking it to completely close its borders with Iran and prevent the transfer of money (dollars) to Tehran.
– Militia threat: Domestically, armed groups are pressuring the government to become “Iran’s lungs” for breathing and smuggling.
Third, the “collapse of Baghdad” or “independence” scenario; After Tehran is weakening, two directions will emerge for Iraq:
– the national wing (such as the Sadrists and some Sunni and Kurdish parties) is trying to take power out of the hands of the Shiite coalition and lead Iraq towards “independence from Iran.
– if the government fails to control the militias, Iraq will become a “failed state” and a civil war will break out among the Shiite factions themselves.
As a result, Iraq is divided into two fronts; Some want the state to stay with the international community and prevent it from becoming part of the complicated situation that has emerged as a result of the US-Israeli war against the Islamic Republic of Iran. According to the fact that in the Iraqi political process and the divisions and conflicts between the parties, as well as the adventures of armed groups and militias outside the law, the second option (dependence on the Islamic Republic of Iran) is more likely to occur.