By Tahseen Wsu Abdullah
After more than two decades of military presence, the withdrawal of the international coalition forces led by the United States from Iraq has opened a new chapter in the country’s security situation. This withdrawal comes at a time when Iraq still suffers from political instability, weak security institutions, and the threat of terrorism. Therefore, the central question is whether Iraq can confront the security challenges alone.
First: The Return of the Threat of Terrorism and ISIS
Despite the announcement of military victory over ISIS in 2017, the organization remains active as sleeper cells in the deserts of Anbar, Hamrin, and the disputed territories. The absence of advanced air power and precise intelligence from the coalition has created a major vacuum. The Iraqi army has a large number of soldiers, but it is weak in terms of surveillance technology and precision strikes, which has led to an increase in terrorist movements.
Second: The Conflict of Unofficial Armed Groups and the Weakness of State Authority
One of the biggest challenges is the existence of numerous armed groups outside the control of the state. The Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) is recognized as an official force, but some groups affiliated with Iran still make independent political and security decisions. The withdrawal of the coalition has tipped the balance of power in favor of these groups, and the government in Baghdad is unable to fully monopolize the state’s weapons. This has turned Iraq into an arena for the US-Iran conflict.
Third: The Disputed Territories and the Security Vacuum
The areas of Article 140, such as Kirkuk, Sinjar, Makhmour, and Khanaqin, have become a security vacuum due to the dispute between Erbil and Baghdad. Neither the Iraqi army nor the Peshmerga fully controls these areas. This vacuum has become a safe haven for terrorists and drug trafficking. At the same time, the withdrawal of the coalition has weakened the mediation and coordination role between the Peshmerga and the Iraqi army, which was previously managed through the coalition.
Fourth: The Challenge of Borders
Iraq has an open and vast border with Syria, which is still unstable. The withdrawal of coalition forces has meant that border surveillance by drones and advanced systems no longer exists, which has facilitated the entry of militants and illegal weapons.
In conclusion, the withdrawal of coalition forces is a major test for Iraq’s sovereignty. The solution is not only military but requires political reform, unification of security forces, resolution of the issue of disputed territories through Article 140, and building a strong institutional state. If these steps are not taken, Iraq will face the risk of returning to a phase of violence and continuous instability.